During the offseason, compensatory picks frequently become a topic of discussion, with fans often wondering how each move might impact the formula. Let’s take an early glimpse at the Panthers’ future prospects for compensatory selections.
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As a quick refresher on compensatory picks, these selections are determined by analyzing players who leave a team in unrestricted free agency after their contract expires and sign with a new team. This is compared to the unrestricted free agents the team signs during the same offseason. Additionally, if coordinators depart for promotions elsewhere, it can also result in compensatory picks for the former team.
Moves made in 2024 that will influence the compensatory pick allocation in 2025:
It’s highly unlikely that the Carolina Panthers will receive any compensatory picks for the 2025 draft. Their trade of Brian Burns, while not impacting the compensatory pick formula, along with the departure of CB Donte Jackson in exchange for WR Diontae Johnson, won’t affect compensatory picks either. Although losing LB Frankie Luvu in free agency could have potentially generated a compensatory pick, the signings of guards Robert Hunt and Damian Lewis, as well as DL Yetur Gross-Matos, are likely to nullify that possibility. Despite being active in free agency, the Panthers didn’t lose a significant amount of high-end talent via signings elsewhere, as releases don’t factor into the compensatory pick formula.
Looking ahead to 2025, the moves that the Panthers make in this Thursday’s draft could have implications for the 2026 NFL Draft in terms of compensatory picks. What might this scenario entail?
The draft selections made in 2024 may influence the draft picks for 2025.
It’s unlikely that the Panthers will receive any compensatory picks for the 2025 draft, but their actions this week could position them for compensatory picks in 2026. Let’s explore potential free agents in 2025 who could impact this discussion.
Interior offensive lineman Austin Corbett, wide receiver Diontae Johnson, quarterback Andy Dalton, defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson, and cornerback Jaycee Horn are potential free agents in 2025.
The Panthers may have the opportunity to potentially acquire compensatory picks in 2026, considering they have higher-end starters like Corbett, Johnson, and Horn who could potentially depart in free agency. While the Panthers have the option to decide on tagging Horn with his 5th-year option as a first-round pick on a rookie contract, they could allow both Corbett and Johnson to leave in free agency next season. If the Panthers draft their next center during Draft week, it could mean that Corbett might be seeking employment in 2025. Johnson is seeking a long-term extension as a wide receiver after being traded, a position the Panthers are likely to address early in the 2024 Draft. Additionally, with younger players like Terrace Marshall Jr. and Jonathan Mingo at the position, if either makes a significant impact in 2024 or if the Panthers find success with a new rookie, Johnson may not secure an extension. This scenario could lead to him becoming a free agent in 2025, potentially resulting in a compensatory pick for the Panthers if he signs a lucrative contract elsewhere. Regarding EDGE player Chaisson, if he performs well on his inexpensive contract in 2024, he could attract significantly larger offers elsewhere in 2025, even though it’s currently a position of weak depth for Carolina.
I anticipate that Carolina will continue to be active in free agency in 2025, as they’re unlikely to have filled out their roster completely after the 2024 NFL Draft. This could potentially negate any compensatory picks they might receive from players like Corbett, Johnson, and Horn leaving if they make significant signings similar to those made this offseason. However, another significant factor to consider is the future of defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. If he signs elsewhere to become a head coach next season, the Panthers would receive one or two third-round compensatory picks as a result. While they would need to find a replacement for him, this is a common occurrence for young coordinators who attract interest in the offseason, which Evero has experienced for the past two years.
While I’m not particularly anticipating the Panthers to qualify for compensatory picks (except for the potential scenario of Evero’s promotion), it’s always enjoyable to speculate. The prospect of those “early Christmas gifts” for our mock drafts adds an extra layer of excitement to the offseason. What do you think, Panthers fans? Do you believe the team will receive any compensatory picks in 2026?
